When will the bitcoin
bear market end?
Nobody can give you a date. But past cycles, this cycle's depth and its duration help you judge where we are — and how to take part without betting everything on timing.
Where this bear market stands
| When | Price | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2025 | ~126,000 | Cycle high |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Flash crash | A tariff shock liquidated ~$19B of leveraged positions in 24 hours |
| Mid-July 2026 | ~64,000 | About half off the high |
| Late Sep 2026 | ~84,000–86,000 | Rebound from ~$78k at the start of September |
The ~50% drawdown is much shallower than the 70–85% falls of 2018 and 2022, which many attribute to spot ETFs and more institutional holders.
Sources: Fortune; Decrypt; KuCoin.
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How the four-year cycle works
Bitcoin has roughly followed a four-year rhythm: halving → a top 12–18 months later → a 50–80% drawdown → a base → recovery around the next halving.
| Cycle | Peak | Max drawdown | Peak to bottom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017–2018 | ~$20k | ~84% | ~1 year |
| 2021–2022 | ~$69k | ~77% | ~1 year |
| 2025–2026 | ~$126k | ~50% so far | In progress |
Past bear markets bottomed about 380 days after the peak on average, which puts some analysts' window at September–November 2026. But cycles aren't laws — participants and money flows change, so use history as context, not a calendar.
What is the halving, and when is the next one?
Every 210,000 blocks (about four years) the miner reward is cut in half, halving the rate of new supply.
- Last halving: April 2024, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
- Next: expected in spring 2028, down to 1.5625 BTC.
- Why it matters less over time: each halving removes a smaller share of total supply, so its price effect is widely thought to be fading.
Buying crypto in a bear market: a beginner plan
- Set a total. Use money you won't need for a year and decide the most you can stomach losing.
- Split it into 6–12 parts. Buy on a fixed weekly or monthly schedule; OKX supports recurring buys.
- Spot only. Bear-market rallies come with sharp wicks that wipe out leverage.
- Keep stablecoins. Cash on hand lets you add on dips and avoid selling at the lows.
- Rebalance. When bitcoin grows past your target weight, trim it back — see sample allocations.
Buying in slices means many small trades. With code OK66688 every spot buy costs 20% less in fees, for life.
Will bitcoin recover — or go to zero?
Bitcoin has fallen 70%+ several times; each time some said it was over, and each time it later set new highs. The past doesn't guarantee the future:
- Zero is unlikely, not impossible. ETFs, public companies and some governments hold it and the network has run for over 15 years, but technology, regulation and competition are long-term risks.
- “Will recover” isn't “will recover soon”. Bear markets can last more than a year and bottoms can drift sideways for months. Monthly slices are far more realistic than catching the low.
Bear market
FAQ.
01How long do bitcoin bear markets last?
The last two took about a year from peak to bottom, followed by months of sideways trading. This one is nearly a year old, but that doesn't prove the bottom is in.
02Is it a bear or bull market now?
A ~50% drawdown and weak sentiment look like a bear phase; September's rebound may or may not be a turn. Beginners don't need to call it — buying in slices works either way.
03Should I go all in at the bottom?
No. Nobody knows the bottom, and a further 20–30% drop after going all in is common. Split into 6–12 buys instead.
04Should beginners short in a bear market?
No. Bear-market rallies are violent and shorts get liquidated too. Build your spot allocation first.
05When is the next bitcoin halving?
Expected in spring 2028, cutting the block reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC; the exact date depends on block times.
06Why hold stablecoins in a bear market?
They're your dry powder and your safety net: money to add on dips and to avoid forced selling at the lows.
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